A tipping point for the energy transition — but will we seize it?
A tipping point for the energy transition — but will we seize it?
By Rebecca Collyer, Executive Director at ReNew2030
“The world added over 600 gigawatts of solar and wind last year — with solar alone growing more than fifteen times faster what the IEA expected a decade ago.” This line from the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit’s new report underlined a truth: few believe a transition is gathering pace until they can see it unfolding in real time. Ten years on from the Paris Agreement, it’s a reminder that the energy transition isn’t a future promise, it’s here, accelerating faster than most imagined. Even among experts, that very acceleration has expanded the community itself, giving rise to more expertise and visionaries than before!
Just weeks ago, fresh on the heels of NYC Climate Week, new data echoed the same story: solar generation hit a record high, and renewables overtook coal in global electricity generation for the first time ever.
The new figures confirm that progress is being made. The IEA projects that global renewable power capacity will double by 2030 — equal to the combined capacity of China, the EU, and Japan. Solar PV will lead, accounting for nearly 80% of this growth, with wind close behind despite ongoing challenges. And Ember’s analysis shows that in the first half of 2025 solar and wind growth exceeded the rise in global electricity demand, meaning clean energy didn’t just keep up, it outpaced it.
What we’re witnessing isn’t just a technical or economic transformation; it’s a profoundly human one. A fundamental shift in how the world powers itself: faster than many expected, yet still not fast enough. National Climate Commitments are starting to reflect this shift — many now include renewable energy goals, a notable change from before, but those goals still need to be strengthened.
This is more than an energy story. This is about what it means for people.
We’ve seen firsthand how rooftop solar cuts household bills and how decentralised systems light up clinics, schools, and homes beyond the reach of national grids. In Nigeria, our partner the African Climate Foundation is driving renewable energy projects that expand access. In Pakistan, The Sunrise Project and Tara Climate Foundation are supporting businesses adopt distributed solar to reduce costs and build resilience.
These aren’t side stories — they’re the new centre of energy resilience and equity.
Behind every solar panel or wind turbine is a story of change and, often, of justice: lower energy bills, increased electricity access for remote communities, local jobs, and enhanced energy security.
But progress is not a given.
Yes, renewables have clearly hit the acceleration phase of their S-curve: costs have fallen, supply chains are maturing, and record solar additions are driving global growth, with wind beginning to recover, though unevenly. Yet that very acceleration is exposing new bottlenecks. Grids and policies need to evolve just as fast to keep the curve steep — and how fast we catch up will determine how fast we stay on the steep section.
This growing tension between rapid deployment and system readiness is shaping the next frontier of the energy transition. As renewable energy undercuts fossil fuels on cost, it’s also reducing wholesale electricity prices and system costs. But here’s the catch: without fair market design and investment in modern grids, these savings won’t reach the people who need them most.
Even more troubling, fossil fuel production plans continue to defy climate logic, with governments set to produce more than twice the fossil fuels in 2030 than compatible with 1.5°C. At the same time, less than 15% of renewable energy finance reaches emerging markets and developing economies — both a missed opportunity and an injustice. The energy transition cannot be called successful if it leaves large parts of the world behind.
So where does that leave us? With a choice.
The IEA’s “main case” scenario still falls short of the COP28 target to triple global renewables by 2030. But its accelerated case analysis shows we can close that gap if we act now to resolve financing barriers, cut red tape, and invest in infrastructure.
At ReNew2030, we’re working toward that future. Our mission is to help countries and regions stay on the steep part of the renewable S-curve by turning shared bottlenecks into solutions that can be scaled and replicated. While record growth is encouraging, not all regions are moving at the pace needed to align with the IEA’s Net Zero 2050 pathway, which requires a sustained global expansion on the order of 15% per year through 2030. Many countries, especially outside the frontrunner markets, need to raise both ambition and execution. Closing that “S-curve gap” is precisely what ReNew2030 was created to do.
Because this transition isn’t only about installing more solar panels. It’s about building systems that work for people. That means grid-ready infrastructure, institutional reforms, and local leadership.
As we approach COP30 in Brazil, we must be clear-eyed: this cannot be another summit of promises. It must deliver on credibility and implementation. To keep global climate goals within reach, we can’t simply restate ambition; we must accelerate deployment wherever it can make the biggest impact. That means every clean megawatt we can deploy faster, every policy we can unblock, every financing barrier we can remove, matters profoundly in keeping 1.5°C alive.
The choice before us is simple: seize this tipping point, or risk watching it slip away.
Rebecca Collyer
Executive Director at ReNew2030
